FORECASTING THE DIFFUSION PATTERN: A QR CODE PAYMENTS IN THAILAND BEYOND 2017.

Abstract

The QR code payment has successful in many countries such as China, India, Japan and Korea while the low success rate also found in some developing countries such as U.S.A., English. In Thailand, the Bank of Thailand announce the Payment Systems Roadmap and Frame Work to establishing the payment systems are efficient, sound and safe and comply with international standards and aim to shift Thailand from cash based to non-cash based society by firstly launching the Prompt Pay service in early of 2017 and will continuing with the QR payment technology. The research target to forecast the diffusion pattern of QR payment in Thailand by using BASS model to forecast the number and adoption time of QR payment in Thailand.

The result of this study shows; QR code payment diffusion pattern has highest adoption during the year 2018 – 2020 with the number of adoption customers with mobile device between 60 – 70 million devices. The result has the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) at 39% which benefit to the business to prioritize and plan the resource e.g. expertise person in QR code technology, financial in term of investment budget, and time line to implement and promote QR code payment.