DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW VALUATION OF OISHI GROUP

Abstract

The purpose of this thematic paper is to estimate the share value of Oishi Group Public Company Limited (OISHI) by using the discounted cash flow valuation method (DCF), which represents the concept that a company's stock price should reflect its intrinsic value in terms of estimated cash flow, growth, and risk. After the COVID-19 pandemic, OISHI's sales recovered to normal and are expected to consistently grow in the same direction as nominal GDP growth. According to the DCF analysis, the estimated share value of OISHI is 55.8 baht per share, which is 20.01% higher than the latest stock price as of March 10, 2023. This suggests that OISHI's intrinsic value is higher than its market price, and at the current price of 46.50 baht, the recommendation is "BUY". However, there is one concern that the imposition of excise sugar taxes might have a significant negative impact on OISHI’s sales revenue and profit.