Applying System Dynamics to Enhance Scenario - Based Roadmapping

Abstract

Technology roadmapping is widely recognized as an approach for strategic planning, particularly for technology-driven enterprises. To better navigate business dynamics and uncertainty, recent research aims to enhance the robustness of the TRM process by integrating various methodologies. One such methodology is scenario planning, which has been incorporated into roadmapping to help management teams address these challenges. This study introduces a framework that strengthens scenario-based roadmapping by applying system dynamics (SD). The primary function of SD is to analyze complex systems and generate diverse scenarios. Additionally, this research provides a detailed “step-by-step” analysis and includes a case study. With the proposed framework, organizations can proactively develop alternative roadmaps based on SD scenarios, making TRM implementation more resilient to sudden changes. The application of this framework can be seen as a strategy to mitigate foreseeable risks while seizing future opportunities.