Underneath the Cracks: Examining Governmental Crisis Management in the Context of the Sagaing-Mandalay Earthquake

Abstract

This study examines the Myanmar government’s crisis management performance during two major seismic events: the 2012 Thabeikkyin earthquake and the 2025 Sagaing–Mandalay earthquake. Using Fink’s Four-Stage Crisis Development Model and five critical governance dimensions consisting of leadership, communication, stakeholder coordination, logistics, and post-crisis learning, the research investigates how state behavior, political context, and institutional decision-making shaped disaster outcomes. Drawing on documentary analysis and ten semi-structured interviews with rescue workers and affected civilians, the study reveals persistent systemic failures across both cases, including the absence of early-warning mechanisms, inconsistent communication, fragmented leadership, and limited logistical preparedness. Comparative findings show that although crisis governance was weak in 2012 under a quasi-civilian administration, the 2025 response under military rule exhibited deeper politicization, selective aid distribution, and heightened institutional paralysis. Across both events, meaningful post-crisis learning and reform were largely absent, reinforcing a cycle of vulnerability and reactive governance. The paper argues that Myanmar’s recurring crisis failures stem not only from structural deficiencies but from political choices that prioritize control over transparency, inclusion, and public welfare. It concludes by calling for institutionalized preparedness, multi-stakeholder coordination, and independent post-crisis accountability to strengthen long-term disaster resilience.